Over the past several years, Libya has struggled to build its economy and infrastructure following the devastation caused by civil war and political unrest. Following the 2011 unrest, much of the telecommunications infrastructure was destroyed or stolen, including about a quarter of the country's mobile tower sites.
For years, reconstruction efforts have been hampered by the political and military unrest that has affected much of the country. During a decade of two rival governments located in Tripoli and Tobruk, there has been no consensus on how to rebuild the infrastructure nationwide, despite numerous attempts to reach a political solution. Some changes are expected following the formation of a UN-brokered national unity government in March 2021, albeit as an interim measure pending presidential and legislative elections expected to take place in late December 2021.
Despite the political impasse, some progress has been made in rebuilding telecommunications infrastructure. Mobile network operators have collaborated to expand the coverage of LTE services in the south of the country. This was facilitated by the newly achieved political stability, as previously warring factions targeted telecom towers.
The mobile market is supported by some of the lowest tariffs on the continent. Opportunities remain in the broadband sector where market penetration is still relatively low. To stimulate the use of services, the regulator has reduced the cost of Internet subscriptions by 50% in mid-2020. In mobile broadband, LTE service coverage is limited and therefore the segment is growing slowly. Limited 5G services were offered in November 2019.
The aftermath of the new coronavirus outbreak has had a significant impact on production and supply chains globally. The telecom industry is likely to experience a downturn in mobile device production to varying degrees in the coming year, while network operators may also struggle to manage workflows when maintaining and upgrading existing infrastructure. Overall progress on 5G may be delayed or slowed in some countries/regions.
On the consumer side, spending on telecom services and equipment is under pressure from the financial impact of mass unemployment and the attendant limits on disposable income. However, the critical nature of telecom services, whether for general communications or as a tool for work at home, will offset these pressures. In many markets, the net effect should be stable, albeit with reduced subscriber growth.
Although it is challenging to predict and explain the long-term effects as the crisis develops, industry forecasts have acknowledged these effects.
