A new study by the Fiber Broadband Association (FBA) found that the number of homes in the U.S. connected via fiber is now more than 60 million, up 12 percent from approximately 54 million in 2020.
The report by the FBA notes that Tier 1 providers, including AT&T, Verizon, Lumen and the top five cable companies, have established 72% of the fibre coverage. Tier 2 participants, such as Windstream, Frontier Communications, Consolidated Communications and TDS, account for another 10%, with Tier 3 participants accounting for the remaining 18%.
In total, the study shows that approximately 43% of US households now have access to fiber. Of the 60.5 million homes now using fibre, approximately 24.3 million are connected to the internet. While the report shows that wired connections still dominate the overall broadband market, the situation will change dramatically in the coming years.
According to the study, cable still has a market share of just over 50 per cent, although that figure has been steadily declining in recent years. Meanwhile, fibre is making inroads and now accounts for more than 20% of the market, compared to just over 10% in 2014. Wireless/satellite options add up to less than 20% market share, while DSL and dial-up each account for less than 20% of the market share at over 10% (the latter being almost zero). In a few years' time, fibre will be the only line on the market share chart.
"Cable has been milking an old legacy technology for the last 20 or 25 years, and that's because ...... they don't have any competition," "Cable companies will quietly but quickly start to roll out as much roll out fiber, so they will cannibalize their own networks to try to maintain their subscribers."
DSL and dial-up will continue to spiral downwards, while LEO satellite technology will become irrelevant as latency requirements become more stringent. Meanwhile, wireless will become increasingly reliant on fibre as operators move from macro sites to 5G micro sites, he said.
Bolton expects record fibre growth in 2022, driven by private sector investment from Tier 1 and Tier 2 operators. "Basically, everyone with private capital will say 'we need to get our fibre network in place and upgrade all our DSL and other technologies, HFC to fibre, or it risks losing subscribers because the community has other options'"
While some government funding will be available this year in the form of state appropriations, funded by the Coronavirus Assistance, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act of 2020 and the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, predictions, most recently by "another year from now at the earliest", may not be readily available to Congress.
Despite sufficient funding, challenges to fibre deployment remain, including supply chain issues and labour shortages. Technical education for consumers and officials is also needed. In summary, providers must also think ahead to ensure that middle-mile capacity keeps pace with last-mile construction to avoid future bottlenecks.
